January’s reports

Thursday 30th January

There has been a period of relative calm since my last update, but not a return to normal. Yesterday the situation flared up due to the issue of tolls. Venancio Mondlane has issued a list of things that he says must happen over the next 100 days (from the election of Chapo). There are 30 items on his list, too many to cover here. One of the items on the list is tolls. He has stated that no tolls should be paid during the 100 days.

Yesterday there were protests about the charging of tolls. Club of Mozambique is reporting that access to the Catembe bridge was blocked from around 10 am. The police cleared the block by mid-afternoon. Unfortunately, they cleared it using their trademark approach of using live bullets and tear gas. A woman caught up by the roadblock was injured when a canister of tear gas broke her window and exploded inside her car. .

There are unconfirmed reports that the N1 was blocked at Bobole and further north yesterday and it is unclear whether that is continuing today. There are also reports on social media and from the CDD that the Maputo-Matola toll was blocked yesterday morning. Videos of the toll booth at Costa Do Sol (Maputo) being blocked this morning are circulating on social media. The CDD is reporting that the police have opened fire on crowds in Boane, suggesting that there are also issues accessing the eSwatini border.

Most of these protests are transient but could pop up at any time. Historically the block at Bobole has been persistent and has in the past blocked the N1 for days at a time.

Visitor Safety

The article on visitor safety is here

Friday 17th January

Daniel Chapo is now president of Mozambique. There were much less protests than I predicted on the day of the inauguration. However, the police reacted violently to the protests that did take place and they killed several people.

It feels now like we are at a turning point, so what happens next?

Daniel Chapo’s speech was judged by many to be very positive announcing many things that Mondlane had been calling for. Venancio Mondalane has announced today that protests will stop for one hundred days. He has also given a long list of demands, which he says, must be met within one hundred days or the protests will resume.

From a safety point of view, this should mean that the country should remain calmer and safer for the next few months. It is not yet 100% clear if protesters will follow these instructions, but already the country has been calmer for the last few days.

However, the country remains tense and acts of violence by the police and security forces and actions that Chapo takes that upset protestors could cause flashes of protest and violence. We can’t say that Mozambique will return to the state of calm that existed before October and the elections. But there should now be a period that is much calmer where travel around the country, border entry and border trade should all be much easier and less risky.

If the situation remains calm the frequency of these emails will reduce. The aim of these updates is not to inform you of the political situation, the Mozambican and international news agencies can do that. But to keep you up to date with the latest information to help you keep safe. And so as the situation becomes calmer the frequency of the updates will reduce.

Monday 13th January

There have been two sides to today, the events within the Mozambican parliament and the events on the street. This isn’t a news email but one about safety. However, what happens in parliament will affect what happens on the street.

In Parliament

In parliament the newly elected (by the disputed election) MPs took their seats, However as Club of Mozambique reported two of the opposition parties (Renamo and MDM) are refusing to take up their seats due to the dispute over the election results. Podemos (the party Mondlane stood for as president) have taken up their seats. It is thought that this is against the wishes of Mondlane. 

On the Streets

Club of Mozambique are reporting that Maputo was a ghost town this morning with most people following Mondlane’s directions given two days ago.

They are also reporting large amounts of protesting and roadblocks during the day.

This article and many social media posts from CDD (democracy-related NGO) are reporting large numbers of incidents of police shooting live bullets at protestors.

There are unconfirmed reports of protests and roadblocks across the country including Nampula and various locations along the N1. There are unconfirmed reports that the road in Boanne is blocked making access to eSwatini challenging. The Ressano Garcia was shown to be blocked by multiple videos yesterday. The situation today is less clear but some reports are saying the border is now clear.  Given the volatility of the situation do not rely on the border remaining open.

It would be safest to presume that the roadblocks, protests and police shootings will continue tomorrow (Tuesday) and into Wednesday. I recommend avoiding any travel (if at all possible) during this time.

Saturday 11th January

As I am sure you are aware Venancio Mondlane did return to Mozambique on Thursday. He arrived and declared himself president while still at the airport. It is hoped that his presence in Maputo will allow for some negotiations to take place.

Since Thursday there has been little news about his plans as to what happens next. Today there have been many posters and instructions to block all roads and borders. It seems unclear where these have come from it does not seem to be Mondlane.

Mondlane did speak today and gave specific instructions as to what he wants to happen next. I suspect, as he is in the country, protestors will largely follow his instructions. A Summary of what he said is below:

New Protests

• From Monday (12/01) to Wednesday (15/01), all activities must be halted from 8 AM to 5 PM.
• Peaceful demonstrations with posters will occur on streets, neighbourhoods, and districts.

• On Monday and Tuesday, protests should target the traitors of the people who will take office in the Assembly of the Republic. (He is referring to members of parliament as they will be sworn in at this time and have been elected with the disputed election)
• On Wednesday, protests should target the thieves of the people—FRELIMO and Daniel Chapo (This is the day of the presidential inauguration.
• Posters can include the photo of the President for whom each Mozambican voted.
• The demonstrations must remain peaceful, with no destruction or violence whatsoever. (Although this is called for do not rely on this being followed)

What will happen?

As always predicting how these words will be interpreted will be a challenge. It is likely that within major cities most businesses will not open from Monday to Wednesday. It is also likely that between 8 am and 5 pm travel within cities could be challenging with protestors blocking roads. How much this will spread to borders and the N1 is unclear. The situation at the Ressano Garcia border has been better recently so this may stay open. The situation on the N1 going north of Maputo has been challenging recently and the N1 may become impassible between 8 am and 5 pm. Maputo will likely be the most affected location with protests.

As in other protests stay at home and avoid travelling if you can.

Avoid roadblocks and protests at all costs.

Do not attempt to cross a roadblock unless it is vital.

If you are staying at a holiday resort in Mozambique it’s likely that the resort itself will be adversely affected. But avoid travel on these protest days.

After Wednesday

There are few clues as to what will happen after Wednesday. Do not presume that the protests will stop just because the current announcement goes up on Wednesday.

Wednesday 8th January

Maputo traffic was at an almost total standstill this evening with a combination of road closures by security forces and some roads being under water due to a storm. The security road closures are likely to continue.

There is lots of anticipation around the planned arrival of Venâncio Mondlane tomorrow. If everything goes to plan he should arrive on the Qatar flight tomorrow morning getting into the airport at around 8:10 am. This means the airport and the area around the airport should be avoided at all costs tomorrow morning.

What will happen after his arrival is very difficult to predict. There could be protests and roadblocks across the country. There could also be violence. What happens tomorrow will be influenced by what happens after he arrives. I suggest keeping a close eye on WhatsApp groups and Social Media tomorrow if you are in Maputo and Matola.

Sunday 5th January

Venâncio Mondlane made his overdue live speech today.
The speech was brief (for him). The key message is that he plans to arrive at Maputo Airport on the 9th of January at 9:05 am. He has asked people to meet him at the airport. He has asked people to wear black and white t-shirts and carry placards in tribute to those killed at the demonstrations. He specifically invited the president to meet him at the airport.

On this basis, the airport in Maputo and the surrounding area should be avoided at all costs on the 9th of January.

He gives no further details of his plans from this point forward.

He had previously announced that the 6th and 7th of January would be elections. There has been no further comment on this or instructions as to how to vote. So it is likely that this will not take place.
This further delays the next phase of protests that he originally scheduled to start shortly after new years day.

It is likely that there will be a very strong reaction to his return and for a period afterwards. It is also likely that there will be a strong reaction if he does not return at the date and time stated. He has said he would return earlier in the protests and did not.

Saturday 4th January

Again, there have been no further updates from Venâncio Mondlane. There is still a period of calm in Mozambique. He has been expected to speak for several days giving direction for the next period of protest (this protest will lead up to the presidential inauguration on the 15th of January). Without this direction, it is difficult to know what will happen next.

There have been some rumours (unconfirmed) on Social Media that the ruler of Podemos (the party that Venâncio Mondlane stood for) is negotiating a deal with Frelimo that does not include Mondalane. There has also been a statement issued that looks to be from Mondlane (although this has not been confirmed as his). The statement essentially complains about things that the Podemos party and its leader are doing. But it doesn’t go as far as to state what the party or leader are doing that he does not like.

There have been a number of posts on social media (unconfirmed) showing vigilante security groups within Maputo and Matola. These are groups in place to protect neighbourhoods. Some of these groups are seen on social media with a range of weapons including guns and baseball bats.

Thursday 2nd January

Venancio Mondlane had planned to announce the next phase of the protests today. He has delayed his announcement. This means it it most likely that the relative calm that has been in place over new year will continue. He has not made it clear when he will make the announcement. I will send a further update when it comes.

Key upcoming dates

6th and 7th January – Mondlane has announced there will be a “new election” on this date. How this will work and what he plans to do with the results is unclear. The results of this election will not have any legal standing.

15th January – This is the day of the official presidential inaugaration. So Daniel Chapo will become president of Mozambique. However, Venancio has stated that he will be swarn in as president on this day. It is highly likely that this and following days will contain lots of protests and violence.

This period of calm and government efforts seem to have lead to the Ressano Garcia border functioning better and allowing people and goods to flow.